Hi All — Brian here. Welcome to February, the shortest month of the year. As we always say, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Which is why what we’re about to tell you is just historical data, and nothing more.

According to MarketWatch, from 1928-2024, February has typically been a negative month. On average it delivers a 0.1% monthly return for the S&P 500 index. Data from Dow Jones suggests that Februarys during election years are historically even gloomier with the index clocking in a 0.3% drop and ending the month down 50% of the time, compared to 47.9% overall.

Here’s the thing: last year the S&P 500 closed February up 5.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished higher by 6.1%.

So with that in mind, even though it’s the year of the Wood Snake in China, we’re hoping the markets woke up this past Saturday, February 1st, and said “rabbit, rabbit”. Let’s dive into today’s edition.

But before we do, as a quick reminder, the goal of this newsletter is to provide a closer look at key developments that moved the markets over the past month, share relevant thought pieces from our team, and discuss how these trends might impact your portfolio.

As always, we are here to support you, so please don’t hesitate to schedule a call or reply directly to this email if you’d like to discuss any of these topics in more detail.

JANUARY MARKET PERFORMANCE

JANUARY MARKET SUMMARY

• Despite a somewhat volatile start to the year, all major averages finished January higher. The S&P 500 rose 2.7% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 1.6%. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, rising 4.7%.

• Investors were generally optimistic after President Donald Trump's first week back in the White House. This sentiment remains due to hopes the new administration will reduce regulations and foster a more deal-friendly environment. Tarrifs, however, do have Wall Street slightly on edge.

• DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, unveiled its R1 model, showcasing advanced reasoning capabilities at a lower cost than competitors. This development led to a substantial sell-off in U.S. tech stocks, with Nvidia's stock plummeting nearly 18% and the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices experiencing declines of approximately 3% and 2%, respectively.

• The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.6% year-over-year in December, with core PCE reaching 2.8%. While both figures met expectations, they remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

• OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank announced Stargate, a new $500 billion joint venture encouraged by the Trump administration to invest in AI infrastructre like data centers over the next four years.

• The Federal Reserve halted its interest rate cuts on Wednesday January 29th, offering no indication of imminent reductions as it navigates economic uncertainty driven by inflation and President Donald Trump’s policies.

ONE BIG THING: TRUMP 2.0

President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January. And befitting his work history, the business-mogul-turned-world-leader wasted no time driving market movement.

In the hours following his inauguration on Jan. 20, Trump signed a flurry of executive orders and announced several initiatives relevant to the stock market.

Most notably, as mentioned above, the White House threw its support behind the Stargate Project, a joint venture between OpenAI, Oracle, and Softbank that plans to invest up to $500 billion in shoring up America’s AI infrastructure over the next four years. This was a catalyst for all involved, including OpenAI’s chief backer Microsoft, as well as NVIDIA, a partner in the initiative.

But the turbulent start to the new year and term produced more than just tailwinds. Trump’s long-threatened tariffs put downward pressure on stocks near month’s end, while unrelated phenomena like the rise of China’s cheap AI model DeepSeek added further volatility.

All three major indexes ultimately closed in the green, but at many points throughout the month, that was far from a sure thing.

FEATURED POST

Financial Strategies the Ultra-Wealthy Use

If you feel like there are a lot more ultra-wealthy people in the world these days, you’re not wrong.

According to Capgemini, the number of people with $30 million or more — officially termed ultrahigh net-worth individuals or “UHNWIs” in the wealth industry — leapt 28% from 2016 to 2023. Tech innovation and wealth transfer have much to do with the rise of ultra-wealthy beneficiaries, entrepreneurs, and senior executives.

But windfalls and inheritances aren’t the whole story. UHNWIs have created generational wealth by following several borrowing and tax-saving strategies that have stood the test of time. Here are some of the tactics UHNWIs use to build and protect their wealth.

Click here to keep reading →

KEEP READING

CLOSING REMARKS

Our team at Griffin Asset Management is here to help you make the most of the opportunities and challenges ahead.

If you have any questions or would like to discuss your financial strategy, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

We’re always available to set up a call and provide the personalized advice you need. Thank you for your continued trust and partnership.